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Data points to the first week of fall nationally, but each local market has its quirks

According to realtor.com data, the last week of September could be the best time to begin a search and start closing down on a property. Historically, buyers are likely to see more balanced conditions early in the fall, with a sweet spot of relatively less competition, higher inventory, and stable prices. That said, local housing trends can shift this optimal buying window for some shoppers.

Nationally, the last three years have shown home shopping interest starts out very strong right after New Year’s, as online searches and interest rises quickly and peaks in early March. As buyers hit the streets, offers start to appear and age of inventory dips fast in the first weeks of March and reaches a trough in late May. And while overall inventory grows steadily throughout the spring and only peaks until July, demand largely outpaces supply for most of the spring, placing upward pressure on prices, which tend to peak in early May and remain largely stable until November.

Calculating the best time to buy

Six supply and demand metrics at a national and metropolitan level using housing data between 2015-2017 period. Metrics include: 1) online page views per property on realtor.com, 2) median listing price, 3) price reduced ratio, 4) median days on market, 5) new listing count, and 6) active listing count. For every week, we calculated the percentage difference of each metric against the first week of January of each year, and then we normalized those differences. Finally, with equal weighting among these metrics, scores were averaged the to a single composite ‘Best Time to Buy Score.’ 

Relative to the start of the year, buyers in the first week of fall face:

• 10% less competition, based on online searches on realtor.com
• 24% faster moving inventory, but slower than peak activity in April through August.
• 10% higher asking prices, but lower than peak prices in May through July.
• 94% higher likelihood of getting a discount, based on share price reductions relative to available inventory.
• 18% more options, based on non-pending inventory available for-sale.
• 88% more fresh new listings entering the market.

17 of the 53 markets analyzed showed the first week of fall as the best time to buy including Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Seattle, Houston, Pittsburgh and Denver.

However, buyers in seven markets may still have the best window opportunity in October, including:

1. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
2. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
3. Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
4. Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA
5. Kansas City, MO-KS
6. Columbus, OH
7. Austin-Round Rock, TX

Compared to the start of the year, these seven markets combined see 15% less competition, 10% higher prices but all below yearly peaks, 26% faster moving inventory but all below yearly peaks, 114% more price cuts relative to existing inventory, 4.4 times more new listings, and 31% more inventory for-sale, on average.