HUD Articles

By Margaret Heidenry

Feb 29, 2024

Mortgage rates rose yet again this week, chilling the already sluggish housing market. 

The average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan ticked up from 6.9% last week, to 6.94% for the week ending Feb. 29, according to Freddie Mac.

With the usually busy spring homebuying season right around the corner, this new reality might leave some cash-strapped buyers once again sidelined by housing market headwinds.

“Mortgage rates continued their ascent this week, reaching a two-month high and flirting with seven percent yet again,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. 

Will mortgage rates continue marching toward 7% and put a damper on the spring housing market? Here’s what the latest housing statistics could mean for homebuyers and sellers in this installment of “How’s the Housing Market This Week?” 

Mortgage rate outlook

Rates have been unpredictable as of late. First, they hit a high not seen since 2000 in late October, peaking at 7.79% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan.

That heady climb toward 8% was followed by a sharp decline in November and December, which saw mortgage rates stabilize in the mid-6% range at the beginning of the year.

Then, in early February, the Federal Reserve assumed a cautious stance on further reducing rates, influenced by robust economic and labor market conditions alongside an uneven decrease in inflation.

Instead of lowering rates, the Fed adopted a wait-and-see outlook toward future rate adjustments, and that outlook has contributed to a rise in mortgage rates as of late February. Though Fed rates are not directly tied to mortgage rates, the two numbers often move in the same direction.

“Mortgage rates have reversed course, climbing to 6.9% last week, according to Freddie Mac, which means that some shoppers are certainly seeing quotes in the [7% range],” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale in her most recent analysis.

As for where rates are headed in 2024, projections from the Realtor.com® 2024 forecast anticipate that rates will hover around 6.8% on average throughout the year, with a potential decline to approximately 6.5% by the year’s end. 

Home prices are still inching up, but barely

While higher mortgage rates might discourage some homebuyers from jumping into the real estate market, it’s vital to step back and take in the big real estate picture.

“The macro factors driving the housing market have not changed notably,” explains Hale.

Take listing price growth, which has been relatively low since mid-May 2023. For the week ending Feb. 24, the median home list price was 0.4% higher compared with the same week last year. (The median home price nationwide was at $409,5000 for January.)

Housing inventory is spiking

For the week ending Feb. 24, new listings were up by 11.9% year over year—marking 18 weeks of improvement.

Meanwhile, overall housing inventory (a combination of new and old listings) rose by 17.8% over a year earlier. 

“For a 16th straight week, active listings registered above prior-year level, which means that today’s home shoppers see more for-sale homes,” says Hale. “This means that despite macro challenges, home shoppers can expect more options as we head into what is traditionally the busy spring homebuying season.”

So while the uptick in rates has some buyers sitting on the sidelines, others are out making offers: Homes spent four fewer days days on the market for the week ending Feb. 24 compared with this time last year.

“Not only is time on market down compared to one year ago, it also remains significantly lower—by 16 days or more than two weeks in January—relative to what was typical in 2017 to 2019,” says Hale.

Source: